- Ireland has circulated two new compromise texts, dated October 20 and not made public, which were discussed on October 26 with a view to reaching an agreement;
- It is aiming for a political agreement among finance ministers on November 9, with unanimity of all 27 Member States required;
- The previous compromise was withdrawn from the Ecofin agenda in June, and the European Parliament rejected the text by 439 votes to 181;
- Sweden, the main opponent, has been run by a caretaker government since September 17;
- Around ten other Member States, including Italy, Portugal and Romania, have also expressed reservations;
- Lithuania, which will hold the Council presidency from January 2027, bans all flavours other than tobacco and will tax e-liquids at €3.91/ml.
A new text on the table
A few days ago, two compromise texts drafted by the Irish presidency and dated October 20 were sent to the delegations of the EU Member States. One concerns the directive on the structure and rates of excise duty, the other the directive on the general arrangements for excise duty. Classified “LIMITE”, they have not been made public. They were presented on Monday, October 26, to the Council’s High-Level Working Party on Tax Questions, whose agenda provided for an exchange of views “with a view to reaching agreement”. The finance ministers’ vote, initially expected at the October Ecofin, had been postponed to the November 9 Ecofin to give Sweden time to form a new government.
The previous compromise, drafted by the Cypriot presidency, was withdrawn from the agenda in June, and the European Parliament then rejected the text by 439 votes to 181. Sweden is the reform’s main opponent. In April, Swedish Minister for Foreign Trade Benjamin Dousa pledged that his government would do everything it could to block the EU tax increase on nicotine pouches.
Stockholm is not alone, however. Since the Commission presented its proposal in July 2025, around ten Member States have expressed reservations. Italy fears a rise in smuggling and, together with Romania, an impact on low-income smokers. Portugal is concerned about its fiscal sovereignty. Greece, Hungary, Croatia, Malta, Czechia, Slovakia and Luxembourg, for their part, consider the proposed minimum excise rates too high.
Sweden still without a new government
Sweden has been run by a caretaker government since September 17. Defeated in the September 13 general election, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson asked to be relieved of his duties on September 17 and has since been limited to handling day-to-day business. On October 15, the Riksdag (the Swedish parliament) rejected Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson’s bid to become prime minister.
Tasked next with exploring options for forming a government, Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist handed her mission back to the Speaker of the Riksdag on October 26, the very day of the Brussels meeting, after concluding that there was no majority for a centrist government. In total, the Speaker can put four candidates to a vote, Magdalena Andersson included, which leaves three. If none is approved, a snap election must be held within three months. In the meantime, the text is likely to remain stuck: an outgoing government will struggle to obtain the necessary mandate from the Riksdag’s Committee on EU Affairs on such a contested file.
Lithuania takes over in January
If no agreement is reached before the end of 2026, the file will pass to Lithuania, which will hold the Council presidency from January 1 to June 30, 2027, in a trio with Ireland and Greece. The priorities announced by Vilnius cover security and defence, support for Ukraine, enlargement, competitiveness, internal security, democratic resilience and social security. Vaping, then, is not among the country’s priorities, and vapers would do well to hope it stays that way.
In January 2022, the Seimas (the Lithuanian parliament) voted 92 to 9 to ban flavoured e-cigarettes and e-liquids, with the exception of tobacco flavour. Meanwhile, under a three-year plan partly intended to fund defence, the excise duty on e-liquids rose from €0.25/ml in 2024 to €0.63 in 2025, then €1.56 in 2026, and will reach €3.91/ml on January 1, 2027, more than ten times the €0.36/ml EU floor envisaged in the Cypriot compromise. In 2025, the Seimas also rejected a proposed cut put forward in the name of fighting the black market. The prime minister at the time had opposed it, arguing that bad habits should not be encouraged.
In Brussels, Lithuania also co-signed, in June 2024 and again in June 2025, calls by several Member States for EU-level action against new tobacco and nicotine products in the name of protecting young people. It is not, however, among the eight signatories of the October 6, 2026 letter calling in particular for a market freeze and a general flavour ban.
If the Irish presidency was cause for concern among European vapers, Lithuania’s could prove far worse for the future of e-cigarettes in the European Union. That said, Lithuania could just as easily let tobacco taxation and, if the Commission presents it by then, the TPD revision drag on, since neither file is among its declared priorities. Any Member State or the Commission can nonetheless ask for them to be put on the agenda.
