Deprived of Alternatives, Smokers Head to China
The Council on Smoking and Health (COSH), a Hong Kong public body, has been calling for plain packaging since 2013. Yet it was not until September 2025 that the law was finally passed. The new packs will begin appearing from March 1, 2027, and will become mandatory on December 1, 2027, following a nine-month transition period. The measure applies in a territory where 8.5% of people aged over 15 smoked daily in 2025, representing around 540,000 people.
From a European perspective, the timetable may seem late. France, for example, introduced plain packaging at the end of 2016. But the Hong Kong government says it is taking a gradual approach. According to Secretary for Health Lo Chung-mau, long-term smokers need time to adjust.
The authorities have above all chosen to prioritize newer products. The sale of e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products has been banned since April 30, 2022, while simply possessing them in public has been punishable since April 30, 2026. The stated aim was to prevent these products from becoming established before they created a “new generation of users.” Meanwhile, cigarettes remained freely available, complete with their branding. Smokers were not entirely spared, however: in 2023, cigarette taxes increased for the first time in almost a decade, followed by another rise the following year, amounting to a 73.5% increase over two years.
One question remains, and Hong Kong will soon have to answer it: now that its tobacco-control policy is becoming stricter, and e-cigarettes have been banned for years, what will smokers do?
While Hong Kong authorities justify their strategy by pointing to the decline in smoking prevalence, from 9.1% to 8.5% between 2023 and 2025, their own figures show that the number of duty-paid cigarettes fell by 39.4% in 2024 alone.
That same year, according to customs data, 92.6% of untaxed cigarette cases involved travelers entering Hong Kong with more than 19 cigarettes, the duty-free allowance. One reason is simple: mainland China, easily accessible by metro, now offers cigarettes four to five times cheaper.
