U.S. Trade Wars, Vape Shortages, and the New Nicotine Cold War

The disruption in disposable vapes' imports is driven by a multifaceted combination of steep import tariffs on Chinese goods, targeted seizures by regulatory agencies, and new trade policies initiated under the Trump administration.

Diane Caruana

June 9, 2025

The global vaping industry is at a critical juncture, as escalating U.S. tariffs, aggressive enforcement actions, and shifting trade dynamics cause ripples well beyond American borders. For advocates of tobacco harm reduction—those who view vaping and other safer nicotine products as essential tools for smoking cessation—these developments pose both challenges and opportunities.

In the United States, a significant shortage of disposable vapes has emerged. Data from May 2025 underscores the severity of the disruption: only 71 shipments of vapes from China were recorded by U.S. authorities, down sharply from nearly 1,200 in the same period the previous year. Tariffs on Chinese vape imports had soared to as high as 145% earlier in the year before stabilizing at a still-punitive 30%. Compounding the issue are large-scale seizures of unauthorized products by the FDA and U.S. Customs and Border Protection, signaling a major crackdown on illicit vape imports.

Geek bar, gone?

Reuters reported that among the brands hit hardest is Geek Bar, the disposable flavoured vape that while lacking FDA authorization, had gained widespread popularity. Suppliers who once received 100 boxes per week are now getting only a fraction of that. Retailers report tight purchasing limits and rising prices, with units that typically retail for $20 projected to climb by another $5. Despite this, demand remains high, reflecting the strong consumer loyalty and dependence associated with nicotine products.

Most disposable vapes sold globally originate in Shenzhen, China, where both regulated and unregulated products are manufactured. While some factories produce devices for major tobacco firms with FDA clearance, others supply a vast gray market. To skirt tariffs and regulatory scrutiny, illicit manufacturers often mislabel shipments as unrelated items—such as toys or clothing—to avoid detection. Yet, even with its unauthorized status, Geek Bar dominated the U.S. illicit vape market in 2024, accounting for around 25% of tracked sales, and was frequently sold alongside FDA-compliant products.

Meanwhile, the current pressure on supply has triggered panic buying among U.S. distributors, with many bracing for further scarcity. Seizures in cities like Chicago and increased scrutiny under new FDA leadership have further heightened concerns. At the same time, industry analysts warn that up to 70% of the U.S. vape market may now consist of unauthorized products—representing a massive challenge for regulators and a growing threat to the regulated market.

The evolving geopolitics of harm reduction

These domestic developments have international implications. As access to the American market narrows, Chinese manufacturers are already seeking new export destinations. Europe, particularly the UK, had become a focal point. The UK’s position as the second-largest vaping market globally makes it an attractive target for displaced Chinese production.

Experts believe Southeast Asia may serve as a temporary refuge for production, but long-term relocation efforts could also involve Latin America, Eastern Europe, or Africa.

However, this pivot was happening just as the UK was preparing to enforce a ban on disposable vapes, which came into force last week, on June 1st. In response, manufacturers have introduced hybrid devices—technically reusable due to their rechargeable batteries and replaceable pods—that closely mimic the appearance and price point of disposables. Critics argue these new models risk undermining the intent of the ban, as many consumers may treat them as single-use due to limited access to refill pods.

Investigations into major UK cities have revealed that refill pods, despite manufacturers’ claims, are not widely available. This scarcity is likely to prevent consumers from transitioning to reusable models effectively, especially given that the vast majority of disposables’ users never intented to transition to using refillable vapes in the first place.

In the meantime, some Chinese manufacturers are reportedly relocating production to countries like Indonesia to avoid U.S. tariffs, a move that may increase operating costs and shift logistical burdens to new regions. Experts believe Southeast Asia may serve as a temporary refuge for production, but long-term relocation efforts could also involve Latin America, Eastern Europe, or Africa.

There is growing concern that such shifts may prompt additional tariffs or trade restrictions from the U.S. and its allies, potentially triggering a new wave of global economic retaliation. This escalating cycle could further destabilize vape supply chains and increase consumer reliance on black-market products—precisely the opposite outcome tobacco harm reduction advocates aim for. To add insult to inury, this situation is benefiting major tobacco companies with FDA-approved products and substantial manufacturing capacity,giving them a competitive edge. As unauthorized imports dwindle and demand remains robust, these firms may fill the void.

Crisis and opportunity: Can regulation and innovation save vaping?

In the short term, however, the vape industry appears poised for a period of instability. Price fluctuations, enforcement uncertainty, and shifting supply lines will all influence consumer access and choice. For harm reduction proponents, the priority must remain ensuring that adult smokers can continue accessing safer alternatives to combustible tobacco. That means advocating not only for innovation but also for regulatory frameworks that recognize the nuanced realities of the vape market—balancing enforcement with accessibility, safety with harm reduction.

Ultimately, what began as a trade conflict between the U.S. and China is now shaping up to be a global inflection point for nicotine policy. The coming months will test the resilience of the harm reduction community and determine how effectively it can adapt to—and shape—a rapidly changing landscape.